What a Trump Presidency Means for Higher Education
Some sadness and some speculation
In the immediate aftermath of the election, my first thoughts were about my family. My teenage son was furious, my 12 year old daughter terrified. My beloved adult stepsons are too far away to hug, so I settled for some texts to check-in, grateful that if they can’t live closer to us, they at least live in one of the other blue states that seems safer for queer Black men. I’m the only white, straight person in my family and I know as much as I fear what a second Trump presidency means for me, I worry more for the people I love.
As I drove to my office, my brain (which felt mostly mushy from a not great night of sleep and profound sadness) started switching into work mode. I started to think about what a second Trump term will mean for higher education and the kids like my son who’ll be heading to college during his administration. Higher education policy wasn’t exactly a big topic of discussion during the election and we don’t yet have key information about who’ll be selected for critical positions within the federal Department of Education, but we do have his past record and public statements to look to for possible indications of the Trump/Vance agenda.
So, with the full caveat that I could be wrong, here are some of the things I’m most concerned about as we prepare for a second round with a President elect who loves for-profit colleges and Vice President elect who has publicly stated that he believes we need to “honestly and aggressively attack the universities” because professors are “the enemy”.
Before we dive in, my usual caveat: these opinions are mine and mine alone. They do not reflect the opinions, values, or policy positions of any current, former, or future employers.
Given what I’m about to write, it is safe to assume that the Department of Education is rather unlikely to ever want to employ me, so let’s start there.
Potential impacts on the Department of Education
During the first Trump term, he selected the woefully unqualified Betsy DeVos to head the agency. Under her inept leadership, the agency staff was gutted, with more than 13% of the staff eliminated, including big staff losses in the Office of Federal Student Aid. Over 100 positions were eliminated or left vacant, which meant that when they started working on most substantial revisions to the FAFSA in history, they were understaffed and spread way too thin. The result? The absolute train wreck that was the FAFSA rollout last year1.
Project 2025 supporters have called for the Department of Education to be dismantled and its powers given to states. Under their plan, the financial aid functions of the agency to be moved to the Treasury Department. Also on the table would be the end of income based student loan repayment programs and public service loan forgiveness programs, which would result in immediate higher student loan payments for millions of borrowers and elimination of the hope of loan forgiveness for teachers and other qualified borrowers who largely do jobs that serve the public good.
In the most extreme scenarios, this could also result in the end of federal borrowing programs and Pell Grants entirely. I think that’s unlikely because it would have a detrimental impact on all sectors of higher education, including the for-profit sector, which Trump has historically supported, and whose students typically take out more loans than any other population of students.
It’s HIGHLY unlikely that Betsy DeVos would return for a second term, as she did have a brief moment of moral backbone and disavowed the events of January 6th. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his appointee coming from Florida, Texas, or Oklahoma and will likely be someone with a record of wanting to deregulate education and dismantle civil rights protections. There is a 99.9% chance this person will not be qualified for the job where higher education is concerned. It would not surprise me to see staff cuts again at the agency, which will not help anyone where getting the FAFSA back to normal and functioning in an optimal way. I also suspect that we’ll be unlikely to see increases to the maximum Pell Grant awards or the expansion of Pell to middle class families, which is unfortunate given that there are reasons to believe that college could get more expensive during the Trump presidency.
College enrollment and college costs
There are a couple of possibilities for how a Trump presidency will impact college enrollment and college costs:
I would expect to see a decline in international student enrollment. There was a significant decline in international students during the first Trump administration, due to a combination of factors including Covid, the “Muslim ban” on people (including students and academics) entering the country from a handful of predominantly Muslim countries, and students opting to enroll in other countries like Canada that were perceived to be safer and more stable than the US. This matters both because international students are generally more likely to have to pay the full sticker price for enrollment (thus providing an important fiscal benefit to their institutions) and because these students are some of the best and brightest in the world and, especially at the graduate level, do critical and groundbreaking research in our university medical schools and labs.
In his role as a senator, J.D. Vance sponsored a bill that would have dramatically increased the tax burden for college and university endowments from an excise tax rate of 1.4% to a whopping 35%. Given that many institutions use the investment income produced by their endowments to fund scholarships and other forms of institutional aid, a move like this would almost certainly result in a decrease in the number of students receiving institutional aid and/or the average size of their award. Simply put: it will make the net cost college more expensive, particularly at private institutions, especially for middle class students who don’t qualify for Pell Grants.
Vance has also argued for removing the tax-exempt status for private universities, which would be a huge financial blow for institutions, especially those with larger campuses or in regions with higher property taxes, given that they are currently exempt from property taxes. This would also likely result in increased tuition and fee costs for students and/or significant budget cuts in academic or support services areas.
College enrollment overall could potentially increase during the second Trump presidency, though for a not-so-great reason. It’s pretty well documented that when there is an economic downturn (such as a recession or a spike in unemployment), college enrollments increase, especially at community and technical colleges. Given that the first Trump presidency saw higher unemployment rates, a repeat performance might drive more students into higher ed. This is both potentially a good thing and a challenge as increased demand for enrollment can lead to campuses that struggle to meet demand and to ensure that students get the classes they need to graduate on time.
When the overall economy is in recession and/or there is increased inflation, this can result in negative impacts on state level financial aid programs which can, yep, result in less aid for students and higher costs for public institutions.
Campus culture and climate
We’ve already seen the impact of Trump’s first term when it comes to the Supreme Court and the ending of affirmative action admissions policies. We’ve also see the rush by some of the most Trump supporting states to attack anything perceived as being “woke” or related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. This has taken the form of firing staff, cancelling student programming and services, ending academic programs like women’s or gender studies, and even making offering professional development for faculty and staff against the law.
There is every reason to think that Trump would want to see those kinds of policies happen in every state. Also likely:
Revising existing Title IX laws to give more rights to students who are accused of committing sexual assault and reducing protections afforded to victims of sexual violence. How do we know? He already did just this during his first term.
He will likely undo President Biden’s policies that increased civil rights protections for transgender students and push for a ban on transgender athletes who wish to participate in college supports.
He has threatened to punish colleges and universities that don’t crack down on student protests and has called to “root out” faculty perceived as having left wing political bias, which be an unprecedented level of government intervention in student conduct issues and faculty hiring and retention, things that have historically been issues of institutional control.
Student groups that have any kind of DEI connection (a Black Student Union, the LGBTQIA student alliance, the Hmong student group) may lose access to institutional funding or even potentially face outright bans. These groups offer important social and cultural connections for students and are often associated with students having more academic success and higher retention and graduation rates. Defunding them could remove an important student resource (while also being really gross and overtly racist and discriminatory).
So… now what?
Obviously, we can’t un-ring a bell and have an election with a different outcome but, if you are concerned about these things, there are a few things you can do:
Message your state representatives to let them know that higher education is an important policy issue for you and ask for stronger state level support for higher education funding.
Message your federal representatives that higher education is an important policy issue for you and express support for a stronger, more well funded financial aid department and aid program, especially if you are in a red state.
Consider carefully the politics of the states where your kids are considering college and make choices about where to send your child and your money that align with your values. It is okay to say “no” to schools that your kid may be interested in if you don’t want your dollars going there.
Vote in local, state, and midterm elections for candidates that support higher education
If your kid will take on student loan debt (as mine will almost certainly have to) try to keep their borrowing low so that their debt level at graduation will result in a monthly payment they can sustain even if income based repayment programs are eliminated. Consider lower cost two year colleges and public, in-state universities as a way to keep costs down.
There is no hopeful way to end this post, I’m afraid. Trump will be bad for higher education, the question will mostly be whether he can put together an administration that is organized and efficient enough to do real damage.
The Biden administration also shares in the blame for this but the problems definitely started before he took office.
The plan is to weaken, and punish, institutions that create opposition.
Thank you for putting this together, Wendy.